When copper prices drop, it often drags down every stock in the sector, regardless of quality. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen with Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) in 2025. The dividend stock has been volatile all year, weighed down by concerns over slowing global demand, particularly from China, and the broader weakness in commodity prices. But now that it’s trading near its 52-week high, investors are asking: Is this a buy opportunity, a time to cut losses, or something to wait out?
Let’s look at the case for buying, selling, or holding Lundin Mining in July 2025.
About Lundin
Lundin Mining is one of the largest base metal miners on the TSX, with a focus on copper, nickel, and zinc. It has a diversified portfolio of assets across the Americas and Europe, including its crown jewel: the Candelaria mine in Chile. And it’s not just sitting still. Over the past few years, Lundin has been actively expanding its production base, most notably with the $1 billion acquisition of the Caserones copper mine in Chile, which closed in mid-2023. This added significant scale and long-term potential.
In its most recent earnings report for Q1 2025, Lundin Mining reported revenue of $963.9 million. Net earnings came in at $138.1 million, or $0.16 per share. Production was solid across the board, producing 76,774 tons of copper. Furthermore, cash costs for copper came in at $2.07, near the low end of guidance. Plus, the company reaffirmed its full-year production guidance.
What to watch
The problem is copper prices. After peaking in late 2024, copper slumped in 2025 due to weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial activity and a shift in investor sentiment, but has since climbed back. After prices slipped below US$3.80 per pound, the price has now jumped back upwards to US$4.50 as of writing.
So is this a buying opportunity? Possibly. Lundin’s long-term growth outlook remains solid. The Caserones deal continues to unlock synergies, and the company has ample reserves and exploration upside. It also maintains a healthy balance sheet, with over $341.6 million in cash and cash equivalents. Analysts generally see LUN as undervalued, with the one-year price target hitting $16.41 as of writing. The stock’s dividend yield of roughly 0.8% also offers some cushion while you wait for copper to rebound.
Considerations
That said, there are reasons to be cautious. Copper prices are notoriously cyclical, and further declines could eat into earnings. Operational risks, especially in Chile, shouldn’t be ignored, with ongoing political uncertainty and high input costs creating volatility. Investors who are more risk-averse or short-term focused may prefer to wait until the copper market stabilizes or until Lundin proves it can control costs better in this environment.
If you already own the stock, holding likely makes sense. The company is still profitable, the dividend is intact, and the long-term copper demand story tied to electrification, infrastructure, and electric vehicles (EV) isn’t going anywhere. Selling now would mean locking in losses, possibly at the bottom of the cycle. But those thinking of adding should go in knowing this could be a bumpy ride for a few more quarters.
Bottom line
Lundin Mining is neither a screaming buy nor a definite sell. It’s a textbook hold for now, unless you’re specifically hunting for contrarian copper plays. If you believe in the long-term electrification trend and have the stomach for short-term volatility, it might be worth nibbling at these levels. But if you’re looking for stability or near-term returns, you might want to stay on the sidelines until copper prices find their footing. In short, Lundin is a solid company in a tough environment. This metals miner has potential, but it also requires patience.
