Mining stocks are known for volatility, especially when the company in question isn’t producing any metals yet. Collective Mining (TSX:CNL) is one of those early-stage explorers. Focused on Colombia, it hasn’t begun production and doesn’t have any revenue. But despite that, this mining stock is up more than 274% in the past year and may still have room to double.
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What happened
That might sound like hype. After all, we’re talking about a mining stock that posted a $16.9 million loss in Q1 2025. But a closer look shows why investors, especially Agnico Eagle Mines, are pouring money into Collective. Even after a pullback from its 52-week high of $16.45, the mining stock is holding around $13.68. And that’s after coming from as low as $3.51. So, is this just a hot streak? Or is Collective Mining sitting on something much bigger?
Let’s break it down. First, this isn’t some penny stock with little backing. Collective has caught the attention of Agnico Eagle, a heavyweight in the gold mining space. In March 2025, Agnico bought 4.7 million shares at $11 apiece and exercised 2.25 million warrants at $5.01, bringing its total ownership to nearly 15%. That’s not a token gesture. That’s strategic interest, and it’s not the first time Agnico has backed the company.
With that investment came a major cash injection. By the end of Q1 2025, Collective had $78 million in cash and a working capital position of $75.4 million. For a mining stock at its stage, that’s a healthy balance sheet, giving it room to ramp up exploration aggressively without worrying about dilutive financing any time soon.
More to come
Ramp up it has. The mining stock holds two exploration-stage projects in Colombia: the Guayabales Project and the San Antonio Project. The majority of spending so far has gone into Guayabales, which is in the Middle Cauca belt, an area known for large-scale gold and copper discoveries. Drilling in Q1 2025 focused on several high-potential zones, including Apollo, Ramp, Plutus, Trap, and Box.
In total, Collective spent $4.9 million on exploration in the first quarter of 2025 alone, with over $4 million allocated to Guayabales. That brings its cumulative spend on just the First Guayabales Option to $31.9 million since inception. Clearly, this isn’t a mining stock dabbling in early exploration; it’s moving quickly to define a major system.
Meanwhile, at the San Antonio Project, which had gone quiet for a time, drilling resumed in Q1 2025, with $700,000 spent. The company believes this project holds promise for porphyry and breccia-hosted mineralization, and it has already made a discovery at the Pound target.
Considerations
Despite the strong progress, the mining stock isn’t generating any revenue. It’s still posting consistent losses, at $0.22 per share in Q1 2025. But these losses are expected at this stage. The bigger question is whether these exploration dollars will convert into a meaningful resource and eventual production.
That’s where Agnico’s involvement becomes more important. Majors don’t invest in every junior, but only in the ones believed to have the goods. With 10 drill rigs now operating and $63 million in recent financing, the mining stock is drilling like it believes something big is within reach. The market seems to believe it, too. In fact, Collective Mining now has a market cap of $1.2 billion, up from just $217 million a year ago.
That kind of move can be hard to trust. It’s already up so much, can it really double again? It depends on what the drills find next. If the company can outline a resource large enough to attract a takeover offer or transition into development, the current valuation may still be cheap. It’s not unusual for a promising junior to be acquired at a premium once a large discovery is de-risked.
Bottom line
Collective Mining isn’t priced like a flyer anymore. It’s priced like a mining stock with serious backing, money to spend, and results to deliver. If it can convert its discovery into a mine plan, or even a major resource estimate, it could easily become a $2 billion company. In that case, the mining stock wouldn’t just recover its recent dip. It could double from here.
