Canada isn’t short of minerals. Getting permission to dig them out of the ground has occasionally been the more ambitious project.
Prime Minister Mark Carney wants to change that. At the Canada Investment Summit, Carney laid out a remarkably simple standard for major projects and their supply chains.
“One project. One review. One year.”
That doesn’t mean every mine receives an automatic yes within 12 months. Environmental assessments, Indigenous consultation and permitting requirements still apply. The idea is to reduce duplicated reviews and give developers something investors love almost as much as higher commodity prices: a decision.
Carney put it another way. “Speed, certainty, and predictability are themselves competitive advantages.”
For Canada’s mining industry, that could be a pretty big deal.
Source: Getty Images
Why one year matters
A mine can take billions of dollars and years to develop before producing a single tonne of anything. Every extra regulatory delay can increase financing costs, expose a project to changing commodity prices, and leave expensive equipment sitting in PowerPoint presentations instead of the ground.
Canada’s new Major Projects Office is supposed to coordinate federal decisions and work with provinces to reduce that duplication. The government has specifically identified critical minerals as a priority, with the goal of getting more projects to final investment decisions while coordinating roads, ports, power and other infrastructure needed to make mines economic.
Carney’s message to investors was unusually clear. “When Canada says it wants something built, Canada will get it built.”
One company could provide an unusually direct test of whether he means it.
Canada Nickel
Canada Nickel Company (TSXV: CNC) is developing the Crawford Nickel Project near Timmins, Ont. Crawford isn’t a small exploration prospect hoping somebody eventually finds enough metal. The government describes it as sitting within the world’s second-largest nickel reserve, with a potential operating life exceeding 40 years.
The project could attract roughly $5 billion of investment and produce low-carbon nickel used in stainless steel, batteries and eventually green steel. More importantly for this article, Crawford has already been referred to the Major Projects Office.
The federal government issued its environmental decision for the project in July, moving Crawford substantially closer to construction. Canada Nickel says it’s targeting the start of construction by the end of 2026. That’s exactly what investors should watch.
The upside
Canada Nickel wants Crawford to become more than a mine. Its longer-term plans include nickel refining and potentially stainless-steel and alloy production, creating a Canadian supply chain instead of simply digging up ore and shipping it elsewhere.
The company also has some interesting shareholders. Agnico Eagle owns about 10%, Samsung SDI roughly 7%, and Anglo American about 6%. Those strategic investors don’t guarantee Crawford succeeds, but do suggest major mining and battery players see something worth owning.
CNC shares recently traded around $1.37, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $350 million. Compare that with a project Ottawa says could attract $5 billion in investment, and the potential upside becomes fairly obvious. So does the risk.
Considerations
Canada Nickel doesn’t yet generate operating revenue from Crawford. Construction will require enormous amounts of capital, and shareholders could face dilution as financing progresses.
Nickel prices are another risk. Indonesia has added huge amounts of global supply, depressing prices and making new Canadian mines harder to finance.
This is therefore a speculative investment, not a sleepy blue-chip miner to tuck beside the banks. Yet that’s also why Carney’s policy matters so much here. A company worth a few hundred million dollars is trying to finance a multi-billion-dollar mine. Cutting uncertainty around approvals, infrastructure and government support can materially change the economics.
Bottom line
Canada has spent years saying it wants more critical-mineral mines. “One project. One review. One year” is an attempt to turn that sentence into an actual shovel.
Canada Nickel could be one of the first stocks to show investors whether it works.
