Cheese. We make it, we love it, we smother it on just about anything. Yet these days, it’s being smothered by a United States trade fight. And that really does seem unfair to something that’s simply so delicious. For investors, though, the important question isn’t which politician sounds angriest. It’s where the cheese is made.
A Canadian dairy company doesn’t necessarily ship every product across the border. It may buy milk, manufacture food and sell it within several countries. That gives trade policy a more complicated route to earnings than a headline suggests.
The distinction is especially useful now that Washington has escalated its challenge to Canada’s dairy access rules. Before selling a familiar Canadian stock, investors need to follow its factories.
Source: Getty Images
The border isn’t the business
Canada’s supply-management system controls aspects of milk production and pricing, while tariff-rate quotas govern access for certain imports. Washington has challenged how that access works, including who can obtain quota allocations.
U.S. actions this summer and September went beyond another round of complaints. They imposed additional duties and restrictions on specified Canadian goods in response to the dispute. The exact product classifications determine exposure, so treating every dairy item as identically affected would be a mistake.
For a company with operations on both sides of the border, the useful questions are where it sources milk, where it processes products and which shipments actually cross.
Saputo (TSX: SAP) operates dairy businesses in Canada, the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom. Its U.S. division is a substantial local manufacturing business, giving shareholders more than a bet on Canadian dairy exports.
Protein is doing some work
Saputo’s latest results showed the U.S. business benefiting from higher volumes and demand for high-protein ingredients. Recent plant investments increased its ability to serve that demand.
That connection is attractive because protein-rich foods can create sales opportunities independently of trade negotiations. The company’s factories need to earn their keep after years of spending, and a stronger product mix can help.
Consolidated adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose to $427 million from $397 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Its adjusted margin improved to 9.7% from 9.1%.
The improvement means more of each sales dollar survived operating costs. It doesn’t remove financing and tax expenses, but it offers evidence that the operating work is reaching the income statement.
What does the price ask
At a recent share price of $39.50, Saputo traded at approximately 21 times its latest four quarters of adjusted diluted earnings from continuing operations, totalling $1.88 a share. That valuation asks for continued progress, so it doesn’t look like a distressed business being given away because trade headlines are unpleasant.
For investors buying stocks in Canada, I’d place more weight on improving factory returns than on guessing the next announcement from Washington. A durable margin improvement can keep producing earnings long after the political quote has disappeared.
The earnings opportunity is straightforward. Better utilization spreads factory costs across more output, while higher-value products can improve the mix. Neither requires assuming Canadians suddenly consume twice as much cheese (though personally, I’ll try it).
Keep the costs in view
There are risks that could “spoil” things. There are milk-price changes, an unfavourable gap between milk costs and product selling prices, and new trade restrictions on affected shipments.
A large U.S. manufacturing presence limits the usefulness of a simple Canadian-export narrative. It doesn’t make Saputo immune to tariffs, shifting demand or supply-chain costs.
I’d view Saputo as a reasonable recovery holding for a patient investor, with the current multiple limiting how aggressively I’d buy. The next step needs to be sustained earnings growth from the investments already made. An eligible Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) can shelter investment growth, but the shares still need years instead of a down-payment deadline.
Bottom line
Saputo’s strongest defence is an operating business that improves across several markets. If its plants keep converting protein demand into higher margins, shareholders can spend less time worrying about whether cheese is trending in Washington.
