1 Dividend Stock Set to Excel Long Term, Even While Down 43%

A dividend stock can look like a gift when the share price drops. You can buy the same stream of cash for less money. That lower price can lift the yield and improve your long-term return if the business keeps doing its job. The best long-term buys pair a temporary wobble with a durable cash engine. You want assets people still need, contracts that bring in revenue, and a management team that adapts without breaking trust.

NPI

Northland Power (TSX: NPI) fits that “real assets” profile. It owns and operates power projects, with a heavy tilt to renewables such as offshore wind, plus some natural gas and other generation. It sells electricity into markets and long-term arrangements, so it can earn steadier revenue than most investors expect from a renewables name. It also keeps building a pipeline of new projects, which can drive growth when construction and commissioning hit milestones.

The market has tested investor patience, and the price tells the story. Shares are down 2% in the last year, yet down about 31% since the last earnings report, a major drop. Higher interest rates raised financing stress across renewable developers, and offshore wind construction carries schedule risk. The dividend reset also hit sentiment, because income investors hate surprises more than they hate volatility. Still, a drop like this can set up better long-term returns if execution improves and interest rates eventually ease. You get a higher yield today, and you can benefit if the stock rebounds as projects de-risk.

Into earnings

Recent earnings showed progress where dividend investors want to see it: cash and operating performance. In the third quarter of 2025, Northland reported revenue from energy sales of $554 million, and it reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $257 million. It also improved free cash flow per share to $0.17 and boosted cash provided by operating activities to $325 million. Just as important, it ended Sept. 30, 2025 with available corporate liquidity of $1.047 billion, including $180 million of cash and $867 million of undrawn revolving credit capacity. That kind of liquidity matters when a dividend stock is building large projects and dealing with shifting timelines.

The headline profit figure looked ugly, but accounting drove most of the damage. Northland posted a net loss of $456 million in Q3 2025, mainly because it recorded a non-cash impairment expense of $527 million tied to the Nordsee One offshore wind facility. The forward story matters more, and it comes with both upside and risk. Management flagged that slower-than-expected commissioning at Hai Long could reduce 2026 pre-completion revenues by about $150 million to $200 million on Northland’s share. It also said Baltic Power remains on track for full commercial operations in the second half of 2026, which could add confidence as it moves from build mode to cash mode.

Bottom line

That’s why Northland Power can still qualify as an excellent TSX dividend stock to buy and hold even while it trades down about 31%. It pays monthly, and Northland’s dividend, while cut, still sits at a reasonable $0.72 annually. In a Tax-Free Savings Account, those monthly payments can build a snowball, and any price recovery stays tax-free. Even now, here’s what $7,000 could bring in.

The risk is real, but the monthly income can keep you patient, which is half the battle in investing. Size it sensibly, and let time do the heavy lifting over the next few years.