The agricultural fertilizer scene has been quite choppy over the past year, making shares of Nutrien (TSX: NTR) a bit of a choppier ride than usual. Still, with a robust dividend, which currently yields 3.5% at the time of this writing, and a dirt-cheap valuation, Nutrien definitely stands out as a name that could have a strong 2026. On Wednesday’s session, shares of the potash juggernaut shot up around 8% in a single day.
Undoubtedly, that’s the kind of single-day run that would get a sleeping giant noticed. With the stock now above $91 per share, a fresh 52-week high, questions linger as to whether the stock is ready to get back into high gear. Of course, chasing single-day pops is never a good idea for a value investor, but as shares look to come in over the next few weeks and months, I do see Nutrien as a compelling value play to watch.
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Nutrien stock shoots up after a big upgrade
Even after the latest surge on the back of a huge analyst upgrade from the smart analysts over at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), I still view NTR stock as a pretty cheap stock that could weather a storm that might be more concentrated in the tech scene, especially if that AI bubble does come to a crashing halt at some point. Unless you’re keen on the name, though, I’d look for a near-term pullback to the $86 per-share range before backing up the truck, as the latest upgrade seems mostly priced in after a heavy-volume session in what was a bad day for the tech sector.
So, what’s behind the big-name upgrade? With Morgan Stanley going overweight (from equal weight), which pretty much means NTR stock is now a buy from a hold, investors have taken notice of the list of bull points. First, the analysts think the potash markets are entering a “tighter for longer” kind of climate. That bodes well for potash prices. And given Nutrien is one of the heavyweights in potash production, 2026 could be a big year for the firm if Morgan Stanley’s prediction comes true.
The upgrade seems priced in. But investors should watch for a dip
Even with the $7.00 per-share upgrade (to $77 from $70), the Wednesday pop pretty much limits any additional upside to be had. Hence, I’m more tempted to wait for a dip before rushing into the stock. With 2026 shipments in potash expected to grow, it seems like it’s going to be a huge year for shares of NTR, even if much of the gains end up front-loaded, should other sell-side analysts choose to upgrade their share targets following the big Morgan Stanley one.
Either way, the stock still looks like a bargain at 17.8 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), even after a historic pop. Personally, I’d be more inclined to average into a full position, given the magnitude of the single-day surge, which could easily be given back if investors find the need to rotate out of cyclicals and value plays and right back into the tech stars.
A promising 2026 outlook doesn’t mean shares are a must-buy right here
While NTR stock is bound to be a bit choppier than the TSX Index, I still find the name to be a great portfolio diversifier, especially if you lack exposure to the commodity plays with lower correlation to tech.
All considered, I find NTR stock to be a must-watch stock as it looks to have a solid 2026 on the back of potentially higher potash prices. The biggest reason to buy the stock, though, has to be the secular long-term tailwinds behind the firm. Rising global populations could mean more demand for higher crop yields.
