The TFSA Strategy I’d Be Following Heading Into the Rest of 2026

Standing in mid-2026, it’s time for the half-yearly review of your Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) portfolio and the necessary rebalancing for the rest of 2026. The TSX saw a V-shaped recovery from the US-Iran war as energy prices corrected.

Uncertainty continues to keep the market on its toes

The July 1 review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was as expected. The Trump administration declined to extend the deal and proposed using certain protocols with Canada and Mexico. However, that does not evaporate the agreement, as it will be effective until July 1, 2036, provided the United States doesn’t withdraw by giving a six-month notice. U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet threatened to withdraw, but has not ruled out that option either.

The CUSMA agreement is important for Canada as 90% of its exports are tied to it. Bombardier and Magna International are among the key beneficiaries and could be particularly affected if the US withdraws. If you own either of the two stocks in your TFSA, you could continue holding them. However, consider booking profits while they still trade near their 52-week high, as they have rallied 117% and 62%, respectively, over the last year.

Investing in the next leg of growth

You could consider investing the profits from rebalancing in the seasonal stocks like Shopify (TSX:SHOP). The stock has completed its seasonal fall in May and saw flattish growth in June. The real rally will probably begin at the end of October. Now is the perfect time to accumulate more stocks.

What makes me bullish about Shopify is its accelerated revenue growth in the seasonally weak first quarter. As Warren Buffett rightly said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Thus, I took the weak season and compared the fundamentals. The revenue growth is two-tiered.

The subscription growth is increasing because Shopify is not just adding small and medium businesses and online stores. It has expanded its base to also serve enterprises, international retailers, offline stores, and business-to-business networks. This has increased its addressable market.

The merchant solution revenue is growing as Shopify adds more tools, cross-sells its products to merchants, and helps them increase sales from their Shopify stores. It is offering its merchants artificial intelligence (AI) tools to enhance their online store performance and sell more. This shows that Shopify is expanding its business profitably.

How to make the most of Shopify stock in a TFSA

You can leverage this trend of Shopify through a short and long-term investing strategy. Buy Shopify stocks between April and June and book profits between November and January. So if you bought $10,000 worth of shares in June, which increases to $15,000 in December, sell shares worth $5,000 and keep the $10,000 invested in the TFSA for the long term. Instead of withdrawing $5,000, hold it and reinvest it in Shopify’s April dip.

Since you are reinvesting within the TFSA, your next year’s contribution room remains intact, and this rebalancing remains tax-free.

Another TFSA growth stock for the second half of 2026

You could also consider buying Celestica (TSX:CLS) stock, which corrected 15% between May and June, along with the overall AI infrastructure market. Too much money is being poured into building the infrastructure. Companies using AI have exhausted their AI budget by experimenting with expensive tokens. They are now revisiting their AI budget, asking for the return on every token used. But that did not stop hyperscalers from building AI infrastructure. In fact, telecom companies and governments are building sovereign AI, creating demand from enterprises.

AI stocks saw a pullback as SpaceX debuted on the stock market. Anthropic and OpenAI are planning their entry, making existing AI stocks compete for investor money. However, retail investors will likely return to AI chips as that is where profits are in the AI supply chain for the time being.