MDA vs. SpaceX: How a Canadian Space Stock Can Still Win

A fresh $474-million satellite order is strengthening MDA’s “picks-and-shovels” space thesis without trying to out-SpaceX SpaceX.

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Key Points
  • MDA sells satellites, robotics, and Earth-observation gear, helping others build space networks without owning rockets.
  • A $474 million Telesat Lightspeed expansion should lift backlog, but timing and customer concentration add volatility.
  • The stock’s valuation is high and cash flow can swing, so consider only a gradual, small position.

One space company generated US$7.8 billion in revenue last quarter and completed its 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026 this week. Trying to beat that business rocket for rocket sounds less like a strategy and more like volunteering to become roadkill. But there could be a way to have a less bumpy ride.

space ship model takes off

Source: Getty Images

SpaceX

So let’s first get into the headliner. SpaceX builds rockets, launches satellites, and operates its own Starlink network. Other governments and telecom companies still want competing networks, sovereign control, specialized spacecraft, robotics, and Earth-observation data. They need suppliers that won’t also become their largest competitor.

That creates a different way to invest in space. Instead of betting on which constellation defeats Starlink, investors can own a company selling the digital payloads, satellite buses, antennas, robotics, and data services needed to put several competitors in orbit. It is the orbital version of selling shovels during a gold rush, only the shovels require several engineering degrees.

The opportunity is also moving beyond broadband. Direct-to-device phone connections, Arctic defence, lunar infrastructure, wildfire monitoring, and maritime surveillance all require different equipment. That broad demand can give select Canadian growth stocks room to prosper without stealing Starlink’s customers.

MDA doesn’t need to own the rocket

MDA Space (TSX: MDA) designs and builds communication satellites, Earth-observation systems, and space robotics. Its history includes Canadarm, although today’s growth story is increasingly commercial. The company’s MDA AURORA line offers software-defined satellites that customers can configure for broadband and direct-to-device networks.

That distinction explains how MDA can compete with SpaceX. It doesn’t sell consumer internet or launch rockets. It helps Telesat and other operators build alternatives, while its geo-intelligence and robotics businesses serve government and exploration missions that Starlink doesn’t replace.

A $474-million answer

On August 4, MDA announced a $474 million expansion to its Telesat Lightspeed contract. The order adds 27 MDA AURORA satellites, military communications capability, and other equipment. Most of the increase should enter backlog during the third quarter, providing fresh work for MDA’s new Montréal facility.

That factory can eventually produce as many as two satellites per day. Scale matters because enormous low-Earth-orbit constellations make leisurely, one-off spacecraft production about as useful as assembling smartphones by hand. MDA stock can now pursue volume without owning a launch pad.

The financial engine is already accelerating. First-quarter revenue rose 32% to $464.1 million, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased 32% to $90.6 million. Its $3.7 billion quarter-end backlog offers visibility, and the new Telesat award should begin rebuilding that total after rapid project deliveries reduced it from $4.8 billion one year earlier.

Looking ahead

MDA’s planned US$620 million acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies would add small satellites, two Colorado facilities, and access to more U.S. government missions. Management says Blue Canyon adds approximately $4.9 billion to MDA’s opportunity pipeline and should increase adjusted earnings in 2027. Closing remains subject to approvals, so investors aren’t buying that growth fully assembled.

Meanwhile, MDA stock recently traded near $47.53, up approximately 78% in 2026 but still 30% below its 52-week high. A trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 60 assumes years of strong execution. First-quarter free cash flow was also negative $28 million as the company invested in working capital and growth.

Investors should expect volatility from contract timing, customer concentration, acquisition debt, and project delays. SpaceX can also pressure competitors, as MDA stock learned when EchoStar cancelled a major constellation order after agreeing to sell spectrum licences to SpaceX in 2025. A backlog is valuable, but it must still become profitable cash.

Bottom line

I would consider buying MDA stock gradually rather than chasing every launch-day headline. Its valuation makes a small position sensible for investors comfortable choosing growth stocks, while the new order provides a current reason to believe the runway is expanding.

In short, MDA stock doesn’t need to become Canada’s SpaceX. If governments and companies keep funding alternatives to SpaceX, being the trusted company that helps build them may prove a wonderfully profitable second place.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends MDA Space. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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