Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is at the epicentre of the artificial intelligence (AI) megatrend and has generated massive wealth for long-term shareholders. The tech stock has returned 2,254% to shareholders in the last five years. If we zoom out further, Nvidia stock has returned a monstrous 36,500% since its initial public offering in 2001.
Today, the chip maker is valued at a market cap of $2.82 trillion, making it among the largest companies in the world. However, its almost impossible for the AI behemoth to replicate its historical returns going forward.
Alternatively, the AI market continues to expand steadily and is forecast to reach US$826.73 billion in 2030, up from US$243.7 billion in 2025, according to a Statista report. So, if you have missed out on Nvidia, here’s another AI stock to buy and hold through 2030.
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My bull case for the AI stock
Valued at a market cap of $4.34 billion, Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) operates a cloud-based lending platform powered by AI. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its lending partner network. While UPST stock has more than doubled in the past year, it still trades 88% below all-time highs.
Shares of Upstart jumped following the company’s impressive fourth-quarter (Q4) results, with executives projecting a strong recovery after weathering a challenging lending environment over the past two years.
Upstart reported Q4 revenue of US$219 million, up 56% year over year and 35% sequentially, fueled by a 33% quarter-over-quarter increase in origination volume. Upstart narrowly missed returning to GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profitability with a US$2.8 million loss but posted adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of US$39 million, reaching levels not seen since early 2022.
“2024 was a year of rapid quarter-by-quarter improvement for Upstart, and the fourth quarter clearly took the cake,” said Chief Executive Officer Dave Girouard, highlighting the sequential growth across all products, with auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) each growing about 60%, while small-dollar loans surged 115%.
What’s next for the AI stock?
Upstart is bullish on 2025, as it projects total revenue of $1 billion and expects to achieve GAAP profitability by the second half of the year. Management anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins of around 18% for 2025, showcasing an ability to deliver operational efficiency at scale.
Upstart’s core growth strategy centers on AI model innovations, which should improve risk assessment processes. Its latest “Model 19” introduced a new capability called the Payment Transition Model, which enhances prediction accuracy by considering intermediate loan delinquency states rather than just the final status of loans.
“One of our very early Upstarters who went on to join Google’s DeepMind said something recently that stuck with me: Upstart is building the foundation model for credit. Nobody else is even trying,” Girouard stated.
However, investors should note several risks. First, Upstart’s outlook assumes a stable macroeconomic environment with no significant changes to its “Upstart Macro Index,” which tracks default trends. So, any deterioration in consumer credit performance could quickly impact the business.
Additionally, Upstart faces pressure on its balance sheet, as loans held directly increased sequentially from $537 million to $703 million in Q4 due to borrower volume outstripping expectations.
Finally, competition in the lending space remains fierce, with traditional lenders enhancing their digital capabilities. As its AI-driven lending models gain market share, Upstart might need to navigate regulatory scrutiny.
Analysts tracking UPST stock expect the company to report adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share in 2025, compared to a loss of $0.2 per share in 2024. Its earnings are forecast to expand to $3 per share by 2027. Given consensus price targets, Wall Street remains bullish on the AI stock and expects it to gain close to 80%.
