If Oil Hits $100, These 3 Canadian Stocks Could Surge

If oil really spikes to $100, these three Canadian energy names offer different kinds of torque: a major project ramp, a leaner turnaround producer, and a small Brent-linked gas player.

Amy Legate-Wolfe

Author Bio Amy became interested in investing in 2018 after having her first daughter. After receiving a masters degree in journalism from Western University, she became frustrated that the finance industry remained a confusing place for Canadians like her: new parents, millennials, and other young people who needed to understand their finances. Now, Amy focuses on tech companies and renewable energy for growth opportunities, coupling that with long-term investing strategies and equities. She also provides investors with a daily newsletter, Canada Stock Digest, for daily market updates. Her work can also be found at Canada's National Observer, where she writes on the business side of climate action. Before joining Motley Fool Canada, Amy wrote for major news organizations including HuffPost, CTVNews.ca, and CBC. When she’s not researching investing strategies, Amy’s time is pretty much monopolized by her two wild daughters, but in what little spare time she has she loves to do yoga, go on walks with her dog, and travel with her husband. Social Media Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Canada Stock Digest. Favorite Investment Quote “October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” – Mark Twain

Published April 24, 9:30 pm EDT

| More on: IPCOOBEALV

Key Points

International Petroleum’s upside hinges on Blackrod starting up on time, turning heavy capex into big cash flow.
Obsidian has cleaned up its balance sheet and guided conservatively, so $100 oil could meaningfully beat expectations.
Alvopetro is smaller and less liquid, but Brent-linked gas pricing plus reserve growth can amplify a rally.

If oil hits $100, there are a few things investors should consider. For instance, look for stocks with real torque, not just vague exposure. The best candidates tend to be producers with growing volumes, low operating costs, and projects that become much more profitable when crude jumps. A smaller name can move even faster than a major when oil runs, but only if the balance sheet can handle the ride. That mix of leverage, growth, and discipline is what makes a few Canadian energy stocks stand out right now.

trading chart of brent crude oil prices — Source: Getty Images

IPCO

International Petroleum (TSX:IPCO) is an international producer with assets in Canada, Malaysia, and France, but the real excitement sits with its Blackrod project in Alberta. Over the last year, Blackrod Phase 1 moved ahead of schedule and on budget, with first steam injection achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025 and first oil still expected in the third quarter of 2026. IPC also added lands next to Blackrod, which boosted its contingent resource base, and it kept buying back shares.

The numbers show why oil bulls may like it. IPC produced 44,900 barrels of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2025, near the top end of guidance, while operating cash flow reached US$259 million. Its reported free cash flow was negative as it kept pouring money into Blackrod, but before that project spending, it would have been positive US$103 million.

The oil stock recently traded with a market cap a little above $3.9 billion. The valuation looks rich on near-term earnings at 102 times earnings, but that starts to look more reasonable if Blackrod ramps well and oil prices stay hot. The risk is clear: this story depends on execution.

OBE

Obsidian Energy (TSX:OBE) is a Western Canadian producer with assets in Peace River, Willesden Green, and the Cardium, so it has direct exposure to stronger realized prices and improving activity. Over the last year, it leaned harder into heavy oil and water flood development, refinanced debt, and renewed its buyback program. In April, it also reaffirmed 2026 guidance, which suggests management still likes the setup.

Its 2025 results were solid enough to keep the thesis alive. Obsidian posted $272.1 million in funds flow from operations for the year and cut net debt to $268.2 million from $411.7 million. For 2026, it guided for average production of 27,900 to 29,900 boe/d and about $225 million in funds flow using much lower oil assumptions than a US$100 world.

That’s why this one has appeal. If oil really spikes, the upside could look much bigger than current expectations. Shares recently traded around a market cap near $1 billion and about 30 times earnings. That’s cheap enough to get attention, though the risk is that a smaller producer can stay volatile even when the fundamentals improve.

ALV

Alvopetro Energy (TSXV:ALV) is a producer operating in Brazil and focusing heavily on natural gas, yet its pricing has meaningful exposure to Brent-linked formulas. That means higher oil can still flow through to stronger pricing. Over the last year, it posted record sales volumes, secured additional firm gas sales, raised its dividend for the first quarter of 2026 to US$0.12 per share, and reported a 79% jump in 1P reserves. It’s a small company, but it has been moving with purpose.

Alvopetro’s April 2026 corporate presentation showed Q4 revenue of US$15.8 million, Q4 funds flow from operations (FFO) of US$10.6 million, Q1 2026 production of 3,124 boe/d, and enterprise value to annualized funds flow of 5.9 times. The oil stock recently traded around a market cap of $298 million and 9.7 times earnings. That’s a punchy setup for a name with reserve growth and dividend support. The catch is that it’s small, less liquid, and more niche than the others.

Bottom line

If oil hits $100, these three Canadian oil stocks could all get a serious lift, but for different reasons. IPC offers the big project kicker, Obsidian brings an attractive valuation and torque, and Alvopetro adds a smaller, higher-risk way to play stronger Brent-linked pricing. None is a sleepy pick, and that’s the point. If crude really takes off, sleepy probably won’t be enough.