For Canadian investors looking for a homegrown growth story with genuine global ambitions, MDA Space (TSX: MDA) is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore with the stock climbing about 269% over the last three years and 21% over the last 12 months, albeit it has been a rollercoaster ride.
I’d bet on the company because its roughly $4 billion backlog isn’t merely an impressive headline — it represents contracted demand that gives MDA Space clear visibility while the global space economy enters what could be a transformational decade.
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A backlog investors can believe in
The most compelling part of the MDA Space story is that this backlog is backed by real execution. At the end of June, MDA’s backlog stood at approximately $4 billion, down from $4.6 billion at the end of June of 2025, as the company converted portions of the backlog into revenues by completing orders across major commercial and government contracts.
Meanwhile, second-quarter (Q2) revenue reached $498.6 million, up about 34% year over year, driven by higher volumes across all business areas, while adjusted EBITDA, a cash flow proxy, climbed about 26% to $96.3 million.
A large backlog without profitable execution would concern me, but that’s not the case. MDA Space is demonstrating the opposite: it is turning contracted work into rapidly growing sales while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.3% (versus 20.4% in Q2 2025).
The year-to-date results reinforce the argument. Revenue surged 33% to $962.7 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 29% to $186.9 million, and adjusted net income jumped 21% to $102.5 million. Ultimately, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 12% to $0.74. Those are the kinds of growth rates that can fundamentally change how the market values a company.
Space is becoming strategic infrastructure
I’m also betting on MDA Space because the opportunity extends well beyond satellites and robotics. Governments increasingly view space as strategic infrastructure, supporting communications, defence, surveillance, navigation, and sovereign capabilities.
MDA Space is positioned across several of these markets. Its satellite systems business is benefiting from major constellation programs, while its robotics and space operations expertise gives it a differentiated position built over decades.
The company has been investing in technologies such as MDA AURORA, MDA SKYMAKER and MDA CHORUS, while its acquisition of SatixFy, completed in July 2025, added space-grade semiconductor technology to its capabilities.
Management reported a $40 billion opportunity pipeline at the end of 2025, including $10 billion involving government customers that had already down-selected MDA Space or follow-on opportunities with existing customers. That doesn’t mean $40 billion will become revenue, but it illustrates the scale of potential demand.
MDA recently announced agreements to acquire Blue Canyon Technologies and CLS, which should further expand its global reach and increase its total addressable market. Both are profitable, cash-generating businesses that highly complement MDA Space. The acquisitions are expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.
What are the risks?
There are, of course, risks in every investment. For MDA, space programs are complex, capital-intensive, and subject to delays. MDA Space’s 2026 outlook calls for $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion of revenue and $330 million to $370 million of adjusted EBITDA, but free cash flow is expected to be neutral to negative as the company invests heavily in capacity.
This makes disciplined execution crucial. The company finished Q2 with $153 million of net cash and $1.1 billion of total liquidity, giving it some financial flexibility.
The bottom line
My MDA Space thesis is straightforward: a roughly $4 billion backlog, growing revenue, solid profitability, expanding production capacity and exposure to the long-term growth of space create an interesting Canadian growth story.
I wouldn’t treat MDA as a risk-free investment, and investors should watch how its adjusted EBITDA margin changes, but the fact that it trades at a roughly 35% discount to the analyst consensus price target provides some margin of safety. For investors willing to accept risk and volatility and who have an investment horizon of at least five years, I believe MDA Space deserves a place on the Canadian growth-stock shortlist.
