Markets can turn fast. The trick is spotting the turn before everyone else piles in. A TSX shift could create a huge buying opportunity if investors start moving away from the same crowded trades and back into real assets, industrial strength, and global supply chains.
For the last while, many investors chased rate-cut winners, high-growth names, and anything with a clean macro story. But the TSX doesn’t only reward calm markets. It can also reward companies tied to food, energy, materials, and infrastructure when uncertainty rises. That shift could open the door for stocks investors ignored while waiting for the perfect economic backdrop.
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The shift
So, what’s the big shift to watch? The move from “what works if rates fall?” to “what works if the world stays messy?” That changes the shopping list. Investors may want companies with pricing power, useful assets, and exposure to essential demand. Fertilizer, pipelines, miners, utilities, and industrial names can all fit that setup. They may not look flashy, but they support things the world keeps needing.
This shift could also come from capital moving toward Canada itself. The TSX holds many companies tied to commodities, food security, energy security, and global trade. If investors grow nervous about expensive U.S. tech stocks, trade fights, or sticky inflation, Canadian stocks could suddenly look more useful. Not perfect, true, just useful. And in investing, useful can become valuable quickly.
The best stocks to buy in this kind of shift aren’t simply the cheapest ones. They should have scale, balance-sheet strength, and a reason earnings could improve. Investors may want names that can handle volatility but still benefit from better pricing. That’s where Nutrien (TSX: NTR) comes in.
NTR
Nutrien stock is one of Canada’s most important global agriculture stocks. It produces potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, and it also runs a large retail business that sells crop inputs directly to farmers. And food demand doesn’t simply disappear overnight. The last year gave Nutrien stock plenty to work through. Fertilizer markets stayed choppy, and the company kept reviewing parts of its business to improve returns. It also moved to simplify operations, including decisions around its Trinidad nitrogen assets and a strategic review of its phosphate business.
Recent earnings also show why investors may want to look again. In the first quarter of 2026, Nutrien reported net earnings of US$139 million, up sharply from US$19 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at about US$1.1 billion. Potash sales rose 24% to US$926 million, nitrogen sales increased 15% to US$1 billion, and phosphate sales jumped 35% to US$485 million. That’s a solid rebound.
Nitrogen stood out in particular, with adjusted EBITDA rising to US$482 million as global benchmark prices improved. Potash also helped, with stronger sales volumes and better pricing. The retail business added stability, and Nutrien stock returned US$409 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks during the quarter. The stock recently traded around 14 times forward earnings and about 1.4 times book value, which looks reasonable for a global leader if earnings keep improving.
Is it a buy?
The future outlook comes down to demand, discipline, and pricing. Farmers still need nutrients to protect yields, especially after heavy crop usage and tight supply in key markets. Nutrien stock’s low-cost North American assets give it an edge, and stronger nitrogen markets could support earnings if supply remains tight. Its dividend also adds a nice reason to wait while the cycle improves at 3%. Even that can bring in substantial income from a $7,000 investment.
| COMPANY | RECENT PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | ANNUAL DIVIDEND | ANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $93.80 | 74 | $3.02 | $223.48 | Quarterly | $6,941.20 |
There are risks. Fertilizer prices can swing hard. Farmers can delay purchases. Energy costs, weather, trade tension, and weak crop prices can all hurt demand. Nutrien stock won’t move in a straight line, but if the TSX shifts toward essential assets and global supply strength, Nutrien fits the moment well.
Bottom line
Nutrien stock isn’t a sleepy defensive stock, and it isn’t a smooth ride. But it gives investors exposure to food security, improving fertilizer markets, shareholder returns, and a valuation that still leaves room for upside. For patient investors, that combination looks worth watching closely.
