TSX Today: Why Canadian Stocks Could Fall on Thursday, October 29

Sharp overnight declines in metals prices could pressure TSX mining stocks at the open today, while rising bond yields and uncertainty surrounding Canada-U.S. trade negotiations may threaten the benchmark’s three-session winning streak.

Key Points
  • Canadian stocks rose for a third straight session despite the Bank of Canada's rate hike, as strong tech and financial shares lifted the TSX.
  • Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX:TVE) returned to profitability and highlighted plans to raise its dividend by 20% after its proposed merger.
  • Weakness in metals prices, higher bond yields, and fresh U.S. economic reports could set a cautious tone for the TSX today, while major corporate earnings may determine how stocks perform later in the session.

Canadian stocks continued to rise for the third consecutive session as investors weighed the Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point interest rate hike to 2.50% and its improved economic growth outlook against the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady and lingering Canada-U.S. trade tensions. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose by 94 points, or 0.3%, to 36,265 – reaching close to its highest level in a month.

Even as many key market sectors like industrials and real estate fell sharply, renewed buying in technology, healthcare, and financial stocks lifted the TSX benchmark in a volatile session.

tsx today

BoC and Fed rate decisions

BoC and Fed interest rate decisions remained in focus on Wednesday as investors assessed the implications of their latest monetary policy announcements for the Canadian economy and stock market.

The Canadian central bank raised its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points, citing persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices. However, BoC also upgraded its economic growth outlook, projecting Canadian GDP to expand by 2% in both 2027 and 2028.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75% to 4%, highlighting resilient economic activity despite inflation remaining elevated.

Top TSX Composite movers and active stocks

Bausch Health, Celestica, Hammond Power Solutions, and Aecon Group climbed by at least 6% each, making them the session’s top-performing TSX stocks.

In contrast, Allied Properties REIT, GFL Environmental, G Mining Ventures, and TFI International slipped by at least 2.6% each, making them the day’s worst-performing TSX stocks.

Shares of Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX: TVE) traded on a mixed note even after the Calgary-based oil and gas producer reported strong third-quarter 2026 financial results, backed by higher oil prices and growing production from its Clearwater assets. The company posted a net profit of $98.8 million in the latest quarter, compared with a loss of $248.8 million a year ago.

Although Tamarack’s free funds flow last quarter slipped 3% YoY, it still highlighted its planned $10 billion merger with Headwater Exploration, and reiterated plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 20% after the deal closes. While stronger earnings provided support, its weaker free funds flow and uncertainties surrounding the pending merger may have contributed to the mixed trading in TVE stock.

Based on their daily trade volume, Enbridge, Canadian Natural Resources, Baytex Energy, Manulife Financial, and B2Gold were the five most active stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

TSX today

Crude oil prices remain mixed in early Thursday trading, while metals prices across the board fell sharply, which could pressure the commodity-heavy main TSX index at the open today.

With no major domestic economic releases due, Canadian investors may want to keep an eye on the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and monthly personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report from the U.S. this morning.

In addition, rising Treasury bond yields and continued Canada-U.S. trade tensions could pressure TSX stocks today after Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada was not yet ready to finalize a trade agreement with the U.S. ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Overall, these factors could trigger renewed selling pressure on the TSX on Thursday, potentially interrupting its three-session winning streak.

On the corporate events side, several large TSX-listed companies like Methanex, Headwater Exploration, Centerra Gold, Hammond Power Solutions, TMX Group, Air Canada, Capstone Copper, TFI International, Advantage Energy, Aecon Group, AltaGas, Enerflex, Teck Resources, and Restaurant Brands International will release their latest quarterly earnings reports today. These reports could drive stock-specific movements throughout Thursday’s session as investors assess the companies’ latest financial performance and future growth outlooks.

Market movers on the TSX today

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in Air Canada, Canadian Natural Resources, Celestica, Enbridge, and Teck Resources. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Hammond Power Solutions. The Motley Fool recommends Air Canada, B2Gold, Canadian Natural Resources, Celestica, Centerra Gold, Enbridge, Enerflex, Restaurant Brands International, TFI International, and TMX Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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